A serious miscalculation by America has been averted – for the time being.

Like British PM Neville Chamberlain in Sept 1938, POTUS Barack Obama prefers peace rather than war with a totalitarian, supremacist regime. But as my parent’s generation learned, appeasement [1] comes only at a high price. A ‘peace for our time’  agreement with Nazi Germany wasn’t worth the paper it was written on [2].

Proviso

Let me clarify for first-time visitors and newer subscribers to this blog, I’ve no political axe to grind whatsoever. Over 25 years ago (when anti-Christian), I was confronted by  the singular goal of Iraq and Iran, although at war with one another! [3]  Therefore, I’ve been well aware of the Iranian regime’s ultimate aim – the destruction of the state of Israel.

It’s important to be aware of today’s situation’s connection to the ‘Ezekiel 38 Alliance’  that was foreseen millennia ago and recorded in the Bible [4]. This coalition is made up  mainly of Iran/Persia, Syria and Turkey along with its leader, Russia. They were seen as becoming united against, and seeking to destroy, Israel. These ancient and modern facts cannot simply be ignored.

Political leaders would, therefore, be well advised to tread very carefully in dealing with this alliance.

Summary

Last week, US Secretary of State Kerry’s headlong push for a disastrous agreement in Geneva with Iran over its nuclear ambitions has brought recriminations from national leaders and many well-informed commentators.

Although claiming to cover Israel’s back, Obama has been in secret, back-channel talks with Iran, especially since the election of President Rouhani [5]. His team had arranged for nothing important to be conceded by the Iranian’s for easing international sanctions. That is, it was not known this arrangement did not require Iran to reduce refinement of uranium and halt production of nuclear weapons [6], which was the rationale behind sanctions.

Israeli PM Netanyahu was reportedly ‘in a state of shocked disbelief’ and felt ‘misled’ by ‘messianic-complex’ Kerry [7], who is said to have threatened Israel with sanctions over its peace negotiations with the Palestinians, who are never, ever at fault! [8].  The US was accused of deceit because,

‘…the interim nuclear accord negotiated directly between Washington and Tehran was already secretly in the bag before the 2-day talks between Iran and the Six World Powers took place in Geneva on Thursday…’. [9]

Middle-East analyst Daniel Pipes foresaw the 911 attack and recently reiterated,

I wrote before the last presidential election that “Israel’s troubles will really begin” should Obama win second term. At Obama’s second inauguration, I predicted that he, “freed from re-election constraints, can finally express his early anti-Zionist views after a decade of political positioning. Watch for a markedly worse tone from the second Obama administration toward the third Netanyahu government.” [10]

America’s Arab allies in the Gulf were also horrified by the bad deal and felt cheated. In line with their strong reaction [11] to Obama throwing Egypt’s President Mubarak under the bus, Saudi Arabia has been arranging to buy nuclear warheads from Pakistan as protection from a nuclear-armed Iran [12].

Then when Iran and the Six met for 3 days in Geneva, France unexpectedly scuttled the deal at the last minute on behalf of the Europeans, Saudi Arabia, the UA Emirates and Russia [13]. Joel Rosenberg sees God’s hand in changing this situation [14]. Expecting a generous hand-out from the US and an easing of stringent sanctions, Iran’s President Rouhani urgently met Supreme Leader Khamenei and reminded him their ‘cupboard is bare’. [15]  Hoping to negotiate with more flexibility, he’ll have a tough time persuading Iran’s top dog.

The US ‘capitulated’ [16]. Disingenuous Kerry blamed Israel’s Netanyahu and claimed Obama is a man of his word, but was met with deep scepticism by their partners. This is no surprise bearing in mind not only American deceit in changing the deal but also over Obama’s credibility gap as a result of the Syria farrago [17]. On Sunday,

…Netanyahu hit back at his misrepresentation as the lone spoiler by revealing his contacts with the European powers represented in Geneva and his close cooperation with the Arabian Gulf, including Saudi Arabia.

“The world should pay heed when Israel and the Arabs speak with one voice. It doesn’t happen that often,” he said… Washington sources admit that the group effort by Jerusalem, Paris and Riyadh to defeat the Obama administration’s Iran policy was a groundbreaker. One source noted that it had attained the unheard-of level of coordinated Israeli-Arab-European teamwork for mobilizing individual US congressmen and senators against the deal with Iran and in favor of tighter sanctions. (Emphases added)

The game is clearly changing for the US in the Middle-East because Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu are on a two-day visit to Cairo [18]. This will conclude a major sale of advanced Russian weaponry to Egypt’s army and for Russian naval access to ports on the Mediterranean. (Obama chose to delay assistance because Egypt refused to acquiesce to his demand to reinstate the Muslim Brotherhood, probably because of his elder brother’s involvement with them!)

Yesterday, the Head of International Atomic Energy Agency issued a report of his visit to Iran on Monday. According to Debka, he pointed out that he had seen no changes in Iran’s nuclear activities in the three months since the election of Hassan Rouhani. Iran continues to enrich uranium up to the 20% level and his comments

…exploded the optimistic assumption at the root of the Obama administration’s soft policy on Iran, namely that Tehran had assumed a new, moderate face, amenable as never before to talking through a deal on its nuclear program. [19]

Yukiya Amano’s urgently arranged meeting with supreme leader Khamenei was meant to be an opportunity for him to signal that he approved of further efforts to overcome the impasse reached last week in Geneva.

A show of goodwill from Khamenei would have been used by the US administration to persuade Israel, France and Saudi Arabia to stop fighting the draft accord they’d thrown out. Iran’s Foreign Minister promised the Americans that if the IAEA chief came to Iran then an audience with Khamenei would be set up.  But the whole three days Amano  was in Tehran no audience materialised. He was fobbed off with paper and photo-op for ‘a roadmap for cooperation’. So Khamenei’s brush-off for Amano put paid to efforts to improve the stand-off.

Conclusion

So today it’s very interesting to read that a professor of law at Harvard has just asked: “Is this our Chamberlain moment?” [20]. Oh, what a surprise!

When published, the full details of the current state of affairs and how the crisis erupted must surely read better than any political thriller. Just let these links tantalise you…

Links for LOTS MORE details:

1. ‘Appeasement’ in the mid-20th century
2. Neville Chamberlain’s official statement
3. Richard’s Watch: read about The Invisible Hand in Welcome..
4. Richard’s Watch: Events indicate the Bible’s relevance today
5. Charles Crawford: Iran at the UN – Diplomatic Chess
6. Debka: Major Israel-US rift over allowing more uranium enrichment
7. Joel Rosenberg: …Rapidly intensifying crisis in US-Israel relations
8. Aaron Klein: Kerry threatening Israel
9. Debka: Israel accuses US of deceit on nuclear deal
10. Daniel Pipes: Obama turns on Israel
11. Richard’s Watch: Deep US-Saudi rift emerges
12. Joel Rosenberg: Arab allies of US horrified by deal…
13. Debka: France’s last-minute hold-out aborts Iran deal…
14. Joel Rosenberg: France scuttles disastrous nuclear deal…
15. Debka: Iranian leaders urgently mull some nuclear flexibility…
16. Israel Hayon: ‘US capitulated’ on Iran deal…
17. Debka: Kerry bids from Abu Dhabi to break up broad front…
18. Debka Exclusive Report 12 November 2013
19. Debka: …Khamenei refuses to see nuclear watchdog director
20. Gatestone Institute: Nuclear peace with Iran in our time