Thank you once more to David Chapman for permission to publish his well-considered points. (See also readers’ comments on Brief Post-election Reflections):
SOME REASONS WHY THE ELECTION RESULT MAY BE A BLESSING IN DISGUISE.
I want to comment here, for what it is worth, that I thought Mrs May’s call for a General Election was good timing, and still do.
However, in the first few weeks I wondered why they seemed to be so ‘inactive’. The Conservatives did not wake up to their task for at least two weeks. By that time though, we were aware it was to be all about a ‘Theresa May’ Campaign and less of a Conservative Campaign. (If our enemy cannot put us down he will seek to ‘puff us up’). And Mr Corbyn was beginning his march into the hearts of many. Mistake number one.
That was clearly a big mistake by the campaign planners on her Team, and if we understand it aright, those two have now accepted responsibility and resigned. But, Mrs May herself also failed to sufficiently include her Cabinet Ministers in advising on the Campaign. We hope she has learned a key lesson from that. Mistake number two.
Also, adding in at the last minute the so called “dementia tax” was an almost disastrous decision – again apparently at an advisers behest. Mistake number three.
It can only have been the volume of prayer from the many who prayed, especially in small groups, and in their two’s and three’s across the land, who helped to secure a ‘victory of sorts’ for the present Government, and for the Brexit talks starting very soon. (Apparently the loss of only a further seven seats would have seen a change of Government).
Nevertheless, for a variety of reasons below, at this early stage of the aftermath and while the ‘dust’ still settles, it seems the final outcome may well serve the UK best.
- The current Brexit Team remain in place. Despite all the other valid concerns over internal problems, settling this issue is the number one priority for the future foundation of the UK.
- There is a potential 5-year term in which to settle that issue, and begin to re-build the UK’s economy, based on Free-Trade arrangements with Europe, to especially rebuild with Commonwealth countries, and also on a world-wide basis.
- Northern Ireland is vital to the Westminster programme and agenda, with their likely righteous and just input, and the Government needing to heed their stance on key issues. (The timing of a breakdown in agreement for devolved Government in Northern Ireland from its Stormont base could not be more poignant, in hindsight).
- Northern Ireland could well be feeling more ‘protected’ from the calls for a ‘unified Ireland’ based upon being outside the UK, as well as being now certain of retaining free movement of people within the whole of Ireland (no ‘harsh’ borders internally).
- Scotland now have a ‘direct line’ to Government with its 12 Conservative MP’s, with their leader keen to see Free-Trade negotiations a success within the EU talks. This effectively rules out staying in the Single Market, as that limits the areas of Free- Trade elsewhere. (Their leader’s comments appear ‘double-sided’ on her stance, but it seems she is basically backing the Referendum decision to Leave the EU. She knows the Government want a Free-Trade agreement with EU anyway).
- Scotland’s potential Independence referendum is now put on hold until at least after the Brexit deal is finalised, as support for its Independence Party (SNP) was the big ‘loser’ in Scotland from its previously exalted position.
- Nett result for us all? – closer ties within the UK; inter-dependence for all in Britain, shoring up the Union!
- Labour policy on Brexit is that staying in the Single Market (originally the Common Market) is not possible (John McDonnell said this on the Andrew Marr show, I seem to recall).
[So if we add together the percentage of the votes for political parties who hold that we should exit the Single Market, it is over 80% of the voters! If we are to trade freely with other countries around the world, we have to leave the SM as at present we have to abide by EU agreements with those countries they have agreements with!
The SM also effectively restricts us to trade on a Free of Taxation basis ONLY with the Member countries of the EU. The SM REQUIRES free movement of GOODS, SERVICES, PEOPLE, and CAPITAL within all Member Countries – as if we are one Nation State! – so NO control of our Borders.]
- Proper plans for immigration controls can now be made for all UK borders.
- The Conservatives will have to become more socially supportive. It is clear Conservatives will have to modify their Manifesto pledges of reducing financial support for the ‘grey haired brigade’, as well as needing to review benefits for the youth, such as university fees, giving more NHS support etc. and for those who genuinely financially cannot cope, combined with the principle of ‘helping people help themselves’.
- As Conservatives do not want a Labour Government they are unlikely to raise a challenge to Mrs May’s leadership until well after Brexit is complete!
- Majority Parliamentary Parties (Cons and DUP) are favourable towards Israel.
(Whilst clearly Israel don’t get everything ‘right’ – from our perspective, it remains true that ‘whoever blesses them, God blesses – and conversely, if we don’t. I would much rather have the blessings! so see this as a real plus. The DUP are clearly favourable to Israel and the Jews, with a strong Protestant base of MP’s in their Party).
Others will have their own interpretations, and time will prove or disprove the above, but I wanted to at least provide some areas of hope for this new Administration, and its make-up.
Dave Chapman 12th June 2017