From: Joel C. Rosenberg’s Blog

Sent: Tuesday, November 01, 2011 12:37 PM

Subject: [New post] SPECULATION GROWING ABOUT POSSIBLE ISRAELI FIRST STRIKE AGAINST IRAN: Netanyahu warns Israeli parliament about Iran nuclear threat, says “a security philosophy cannot rely on defense alone.”

Israeli PM Netanyahu speaking before the Knesset on Oct. 31, 2011.

Speculation in Washington and the Middle East continues to grow about a possible Israeli preemptive military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities. This is in part because Iran is getting closer to building nuclear warheads, in part because of remarks Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke to the Knesset on Monday about the Iran threat, in part because former Vice President Dick Cheney recently speculated about an Israeli first strike, and in part because the Obama administration is publicly pressuring Israel not to hit first.

“If I had to summarize what will happen in our region, I would use two terms: instability and uncertainty,” Netanyahu told his parliamentary colleagues Monday. “The collapse of Gaddafi’s regime in Libya, the bloody incidents in Syria, the American forces leaving Iraq, the new government in Tunisia, the upcoming elections in Egypt and many other events – these are all expressions of the immense changes occurring around us. These changes can increase the instability within these countries, and the instability between countries….A nuclear Iran would pose a terrible threat on the Middle East and on the entire world. And of course, it poses a great, direct threat on us too….A security philosophy cannot rely on defense alone. It must also include offensive capabilities, which is the very foundation of deterrence. We operate and will continue to operate intensely and determinately against those who threaten the security of the State of Israel and its citizens. Our policy is guided by two main principles: the first is ‘if someone comes to kill you, rise up and kill him first,’ and the second is ‘if anyone harms us, his blood is on his own hands.'”

I’ve never heard Netanyahu discuss those two principles before (RB’s emphasis) — they certainly lay the moral and strategic framework for preemptive military action, both against the Hamas terrorists that are firing rockets and missiles at Israel from Gaza, and against state enemies such as Iran.

Such developments echo major plot points in my new political thriller, The Tehran Initiative, but this is not fiction. Could a major new war in the region be coming later this year, or early next? It’s too early to say, but there is little question that senior Israeli officials are now actively weighing such an option, or that the Obama administration is deeply opposed. What would a Republican president do differently that President Obama to neutralize the Iran threat? That remains to be seen as none of the GOP contenders has yet offered a major policy address focused on the Iran issue.

• Haaretz: Netanyahu: A nuclear Iran poses a serious, direct threat to Israel — PM warns of dangers threatening the world and Israel if Tehran obtains nuclear weapons; Netanyahu also speaks about recent escalation in south, promises to retaliate those who harm Israel
• Ynet News: U.S. fears unilateral Israeli strike on Iran
• Israel defense chief: Iran our main threat
• Barak: Israel has not already decided to strike Iran— “Amidst a flurry of recent reports regarding a possible Israeli attack against Iran, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Monday that he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have not already decided that Israel will conduct such a strike.”
• Haaretz: Israel warns West: Window of opportunity to thwart Iran nuclear program is closing
• Senior Israeli official: Iran is massive threat that must be dealt with
• Fmr. Vice President Cheney says Israel may have to attack Iran
• Washington Times: Israeli prisoner swamp may be prelude to attack on Iran
• Fears an excluded Israel may strike Iran’s nuclear sites
• Iran leader says US troop exit “golden” for Iraq
• Since Sat (Oct 29), 38 rockets have been fired from Gaza at southern Israel
• Iran demands apology from US over Saudi ambassador ‘assassination plot’

• Tensions growing inside Iran — Iran parliament to question Ahmadinejad over fraud