The following published last night reminds me of exactly 4 years to the day when I mused, prophetically it so happens, Is the Lord Exposing Rotten Politics in UK, USA next EU? As usual, emphases are mine:
‘Death scenarios used by the Government to justify a second national lockdown are out-of-date and may be four times too high, research suggests.
‘At Saturday night’s Downing Street press conference, scientists presented graphs suggesting England could see 4,000 daily deaths early next month. The scenario from Cambridge University was used as part of efforts to justify the introduction of sweeping restrictions.
‘But data experts have questioned why the scenario – drawn up three weeks ago – was chosen to illustrate the crisis, when the university has produced far more recent forecasts, which are significantly lower.
‘The modelling presented on Saturday night, which suggests deaths could reach 4,000 a day by December, is so out-of-date that it suggests daily deaths are now around 1,000 a day.
‘In fact, the daily average for the last week is 260, with a figure of 162 yesterday.
‘And the statistics unit at Cambridge University has produced far more up-to-date projections, with far lower figures, the Telegraph can reveal. These forecasts, dated October 28 – three days before the Downing Street announcement – far more closely track the current situation, forecasting 240 daily deaths by next week, and around 500 later this month.
‘While these predictions do not look as far ahead as December, they suggest a picture which is far more optimistic than the scenario which caused shock waves this weekend.
‘Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, at Oxford University, said he was “deeply concerned” by the selection of data which were not based on the current reality…’ [CEBM graph below has link]
Click to read in full – (paywall with free offer) – over 100 outraged comments; oh what a surprise!”